Indonesia’s economic performance in 2025 is best described as a paradox: an economy that appears stable on the surface but is increasingly strained beneath it. The government’s headline numbers suggest resilience. Growth remains close to 5 percent. Inflation remains broadly contained, and the fiscal deficit stays within acceptable bounds. Yet, a closer reading of the evidence reveals an economy wrestling with weakening consumption, rising external pressures,  intensifying  capital  outflows,  stagnant  government  revenues,  and  persistent labour-market vulnerabilities. 
These underlying trends maJer not only for assessing Indonesia’s economic performance in 2025 but also for anticipating the kind of economic conditions the country is likely to face in 
12026. They point to a more complicated picture of Indonesia’s economic conditions: a more fragile and uncertain future trajectory. It raises critical questions about the durability of the country’s current growth path.